Tropical Storm Melissa becomes hurricane, expected to intensify

Tropical update: October 25, 2025

FOX 35 Meteorologist Laurel Blanchard has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs thru November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Melissa has intensified into Hurricane Melissa. She's expected to move westbound in the Caribbean, getting closer to Jamaica on Monday, before making landfall potentially early Tuesday. 

Jamaica is under a Hurricane Warning as confidence continues to grow for a direct strike there. Haiti is currently under a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning as it could be just missed by some of the worst of Melissa. 

The exact track will be determined when it starts to feel the upper-level steering with this incoming cold front and interactions with land. 

That's what we'll be continuing to watch closely. From there, Cuba, the Bahamas, and The Turks & Caicos will feel the impacts of Melissa as it works into the Atlantic. Thankfully, this is where it'll start to weaken quickly with the help of cooler water and more wind shear.

WHO WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED? 

Jamaica will looks to see the most extreme impacts at the moment. From there Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and The Turks & Caicos will all need to be on alert as Melissa moves northward and eventually northeastward. Jamaica and Southern Cuba will take direct hits from Melissa, but Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be on the "dirty side of the storm", meaning the side of the storm with the worst threats including the worst winds and rain leading to immense amounts of rain.

WHAT IMPACTS?

Feet of rain, deadly storm surge, and Category 5 wind gusts could potentially devastate parts of Jamaica. Catastrophic flooding and mudslides are expected where the the worst of the conditions unfold. Depending on the exact track, rainfall amounts could top out around 3 feet or more. Some isolated amounts with the help of the mountainous terrain could see much more than that. The mountain enhance the lift which in turn enhance the rainfall rate.

WHAT IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION?

Rapid intensification essentially is just quick strengthening of a system. Per the National Hurricane Center, it means that a tropical cyclone strengthens 34 mph in a 24-hour period. This is what we're expecting with Melissa and then some. 

It's expected to go from a Category 1 Hurricane today to near Category 5 strength by Monday. The driver of the strengthening is the extreme heat in the Caribbean or fuel for Melissa as well as the lack of wind shear (twisting and strength of the wind with height in the atmosphere).

WILL THERE BE ANY IMPACTS IN FLORIDA?

Melissa will miss Florida thanks to a series of cold fronts and in turn, dip in the Jetstream (steering in the atmosphere). This will keep Melissa offshore and away from the U.S. Mainland. We will still see some indirect impacts though. 

Gusty onshore flow (easterly wind) with the help of Melissa to our SE will make for big surf, high rip current risk, and more coastal erosion. Some coastal flooding is also a possibility. This will also be combined with another King tide episode due to the Supermoon at the start of November leading to even higher and rougher surf. This means our East Coast beaches will not be the best places to be through next week.

Some coastal flooding is also a possibility. This means our East Coast beaches will not be the best places to be through next week.