Tropical Storm Erin shows potential to strengthen into first major hurricane: NHC

Tropical Update: August 11, 2025

Tropical Storm Erin has formed and is forecast to become the season's 1st hurricane, and 1st major hurricane. FOX 35 Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren has the latest conditions. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs thru November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday in the eastern Atlantic and is forecast to strengthen into the season’s first hurricane — and potentially the first major hurricane — later this week, forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Erin forms in eastern Atlantic

What to Expect:

As of 11 p.m. EDT, Erin was located about 560 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is moving west at 35 mph and is expected to maintain that general track for several days.

No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center, and gradual strengthening is forecast as Erin travels across the eastern and Central Atlantic.

Forecasters expect Erin could reach Category 3 strength or higher later this week.

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Tropical Storm Erin is tracking closer to the Leeward Islands this weekend, though much remains uncertain about its long-term path.

Forecast models have shifted dramatically. On Monday, the GFS model moved the projected position of what is expected to be Major Hurricane Erin early next week, nearly 600 miles southwest of earlier forecasts.

While most models still show Erin curving back out to sea, some runs depict a path that could impact the U.S. East Coast. Meteorologists caution that it’s too early to rule out any scenario. "Watch without worry" remains the guidance for Florida and the Southeast, though forecasters say those cruising in the southwest Atlantic next week could be directly affected.

Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by late Wednesday, which could provide a clearer picture of its trajectory. For now, forecasters hope the storm’s eventual path spares all land areas.

Invest 96L: Central Atlantic

What to Expect:

In the central Atlantic, a weak trough of low pressure, labeled Invest 96L, is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Development chances have diminished as the system drifts northward.

Non-tropical area of low pressure: Northwestern Atlantic

What to Expect:

Farther north, a non-tropical area of low pressure is in the Northwestern Atlantic. The system is several hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia and could see limited tropical or subtropical development while moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

It poses no threat to Florida.

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Surface trough over northeastern Gulf

What to expect:

A fourth area of disorganized thunderstorms has emerged over Gulf but has a low chance for development.

While development of this system is not anticipatedbefore it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over the next dayor so.

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