Poll: Republicans lead Democrats in Florida's 2026 races for governor, AG

Poll: Donalds, Casey DeSantis lead Fla. Gov. race

UCF Political Science Lecturer John Hanley joins FOX 35's Garrett Wymer live via Zoom to break down a new poll from UNF showing the state of the race for Florida's next Governor in 2026. According to the poll, Republicans lead by double digits, regardless of if Congressman Byron Donalds or Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis makes it out of the primary, and whether they face former Congressman David Jolly or Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings. The poll also took a look at the top issues facing Floridians, which came out to a focus on housing, property insurance, property tax and the economy.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Potential Republican candidates hold strong leads over Democrats in Florida’s 2026 midterm races, according to a new poll.

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab released results of the survey on Tuesday.

What we know:

In head-to-head gubernatorial matchups, Casey DeSantis and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds each led Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings by about 11 to 13 percentage points. 

DeSantis earned 47% support to Jolly’s 34%, while Donalds drew 45% to Jolly’s 34%.

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Republicans also led in other statewide contests, with Sen. Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Jennifer Jenkins 49% to 38%, and Attorney General James Uthmeier leading Democrat José Javier Rodríguez 45% to 36%.

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Housing costs ranked as voters’ top concern (14%), followed by property insurance (12%) and property taxes (11%). Nearly half of respondents (49%) supported eliminating property taxes for homeowners, while 43% opposed the idea.

Voters showed strong backing (63%) for allowing terminally ill patients to request life-ending medication and broad opposition (62%) to removing childhood vaccine mandates.

What we don't know:

It is not yet known if Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings will launch a bid for governor. It is still extremely early to know if this poll will hold as the election is over a year away. Florida's 2026 Primary Election is Aug. 18, and the General Election is Nov. 3.

The statewide survey of 728 likely voters, conducted Oct. 15–25, has a margin of error of ±4.25 percentage points. Read more here.