FOX 35 Storm Team: Tropical system has potential to develop before Halloween

LAKE MARY, Fla. - The FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring an outside chance for a tropical system to develop in about 10 days.

Long-range computer models have consistently suggested the development of a tropical low forming in the southwest Caribbean. 

"If you look at weather history, this would not be uncommon for October. This month offers the highest statistical chance for tropical systems to make landfall in Florida," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner. 

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The track associated with this storied history usually takes systems from the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean where they originate, according to Garner, into southwest Florida.  These systems are guided into the Sunshine State by approaching cold fronts from the west.

"This scenario may come together yet again in about 10 days," Garner observed.  "Regardless if the disturbance actually develops into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, it's unlikely to get very strong due to high wind shear associated with the trough dragging the cold front across the peninsula."

Forecasters said Central Florida could expect, at the very least, a rainy and stormy pattern to develop as we head toward the week before Halloween. 

"The tropics notoriously throw curveballs," Garner added. 

Stay with the FOX 35 Storm Team for updates. As the calendar goes, the hurricane season ends on November 30.

Watch FOX 35 News for the latest weather updates throughout hurricane season.