Tropical Storm Erin to become hurricane this week; dangerous beach conditions likely in Caribbean

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin is continuing to gain strength, and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expect the system to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Here's what we know about the storm, what impacts it could bring to Florida and a look at what else forecasters have their eye on in the tropics. 

What is Tropical Storm Erin? Where is it located?

What we know:

Forecasters with the NHC say Tropical Storm Erin is expected to start to gain strength on Wednesday and will likely become a hurricane either Thursday or Friday.

Early Wednesday evening, the storm was  located about 1,200 miles to the east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving off to the west at 17 mph. 

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The NHC says Erin's general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion starting Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.

The center of the storm is forecast to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

This could bring some potential swells to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at local beaches. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known.

Maximum sustained winds within Erin have held steady at 45 mph. However, forecasters say it could be a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) with winds of at least 115 mph.

The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22.

Will Tropical Storm Erin impact Florida?

Local perspective:

There is uncertainty about what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States and Bermuda next week.  

Officials are encouraging residents to continue to monitor the storm.

Erin will also be feeding off of very warm water in the Atlantic, which could help the storm strengthen in intensity.

NHC monitors another area of interest near Yucatán

Dig deeper:

Forecasters at the NHC have also highlighted a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea for development, but chances for further organization remain low. Parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf will see a significant amount of land interaction, limiting its organization.

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This tropical wave is presently near the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northward and cross the Yucatán Peninsula with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this sytem is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10-15 mph. 

The system has a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development in the next seven days. 

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