System in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression next week

Chances of development have increased for a tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on it.

The low pressure that is heading into the Bay of Campeche has a 50% formation chance, the NHC said in an update on Friday. It is expected to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week. 

Conditions are favorable for gradual development, which means a tropical depression might form during the early to the middle part of next week as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

The tropical activity will pull in drier air for the Central Florida region for the first half of next week, reducing daily storm chances to 20%.

By next week, a second system may form in the Gulf of Mexico, pulling much more humid, moisture-laden air into our region and resulting in 70% to 90% rain chances for the last week of June.

Should any system become the hurricane season's first named storm, it would be called Alberto.

Historically, tropical storms in the Tampico and Veracruz areas have led to significant flooding and mudslides. Tropical Storm Fernand in 2019 caused severe flooding and landslides in Veracruz, resulting in infrastructure damage and the displacement of residents. Similarly, Tropical Storm Franklin in 2017 brought heavy rains that led to extensive flooding and mudslides, causing road closures and community evacuations.

Meanwhile, the NHC continues to track Invest 90L located offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast.

NHC said "the system is forecast to merge with a front over the western Atlantic Saturday or Sunday."

Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida peninsula through Saturday.