Invest 98L: Tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa likely to form this week

Tropical Update: October 20, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking the potential of Melissa forming over the next few days.

A disturbance in the Atlantic is likely to become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa this week as it heads into the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said.

The NHC said Invest 98L has a 90% chance of tropical development over the next two days, and a 90% chance of development over the next week.

Melissa would be the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on November 30.

Invest 98L

Invest 98L is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea and is producing a "concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms," the NHC said.

It's moving west at 15–20 mph towards the Central Caribbean Sea.

It's expected to bring heavy rains and strong winds to the ABC Islands, which refers to the Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao Islands, part of the Leeward Islands.

Forecast track hinges on how quickly it forms

Looking Ahead:

Forecasters say how quickly the system organizes will play a major role in determining its eventual path and strength.

If the system develops rapidly before Friday, it could be picked up by an approaching cold front and steered toward the Dominican Republic or Haiti later this week. In that scenario, heavy rainfall and the risk of major flooding could pose serious threats to parts of the Caribbean.

However, if the system forms more slowly, it may drift farther west into the Caribbean, where it could strengthen significantly in the western region. That possibility adds uncertainty to the long-range forecast and raises the potential for a more intense storm.