Orlando, FL - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has released an early special tropical outlook on Monday, showing that an area of low pressure is forecasted to develop a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas by this weekend.
The forecast shows that conditions appear favorable over the next five days for a system to spin up. It specifically has a 70 percent chance for development into a subtropical system over the next five days.
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic," the NHC posted late Tuesday.
If it becomes a named storm, it will be named "Arthur."
The potential storm appears to be moving away from Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard and into the open Atlantic. Latest forecast models all agree on the possible system moving away from land.
It is possible that in the system's developmental stages, rainfall could develop over South Florida with lower chances on Friday and Saturday here in Central Florida. FOX 35 meteorologist Jayme King says that this is something to keep an eye later in the week.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season will start on June 1st. However, early developments before the start of the season has become typical over the last five years.
For example, in 2015, Tropical Storm Ana made landfall on Memorial Day, which is the second earliest development on record. 2016 then saw the May developments of Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Alex. Then in 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in April. 2018 brought Tropical Storm Alberto into the Florida Panhandle. And finally, in 2019, Tropical Storm Andrea developed on Memorial Day near Bermuda.