LAKE MARY, Fla. - We're currently keeping a close eye on a well-defined tropical wave down in the Western Caribbean. The invest area "AL-91" has developmental chances currently of 20% over the next 2 days and 70% over the next five days.
The system looks to have heavy land interaction with the Yucatan as we head into the weekend but, a depression could possibly form before the anticipated brush with land.
The latest spaghetti plot modeling coming into the FOX 35 Weather Center suggests a West-Northwest movement over the next 2-3 days.
Many areas in the Northwest Caribbean will experience flash flooding and gusty winds starting tomorrow as the feature draws closer to that region. Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Western Cuba should keep a close eye on the system on Friday and Saturday.
A weather system hanging around the Southeast States this weekend will have ample opportunity to draw the associated tropical moisture Northward.
Be sure you have the FOX 35 Weather App downloaded and ready for hurricane season.
We here in Florida should pay close attention to the possible growing threat of heavy tropical rainfall late Saturday into Sunday. Current rainfall modeling is generating some rather generous accumulations across the Florida Peninsula during the weekend.
Areas south of Cape Canaveral, specifically the Treasure Coast region (Martin and St. Lucie Counties) received upwards of 8-10" of rain Thursday afternoon, any tropical rain on top of that this weekend could spell trouble.
The latest runs of the GFS forecast model displayed here shows a moisture rich corridor of air, free-flowing into the State off of the Eastern edge of the system. If AL-91 intensifies, then rain amounts could easily increase.
Bottom line, have the umbrellas handy this weekend, and perhaps a Plan "B" if you had any ambitions to head into the outdoors.