First frost in Central Florida?
Orlando, Fl - Now that we have had our first legit cold front, I, of course, am looking ahead to see when we should expect our first frost. To produce a frost down here in Central Florida it requires a very potent cold front, and aligning the pressure systems (sometimes the stars) just right. We need to get a direct north-northwest wind that is blowing from about 340 degrees direct from Georgia and farther north. The current hyper-exaggerated jetstream pattern is perfect to tap into cold, arctic air and drive it all the way down here into Florida. This pattern will set itself for about 3-5 days, then fade and may not return for many weeks. The timing has to be just right and, of course, it must occur from mid-December through mid-February.
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It has been a rare event to get cold air down into Central Florida the past five years. We have averaged 2-3 nights below 30 degrees in Orlando, but we have not had any freezing nights. The main reason for the scarcity of freezing weather points to the lack of multi-day north-northwest winds for us. If you are anticipating a freeze this year, you may be dissapointed again. Event though I am anticipating some wild swings in temperatures this winter season, I am expecting very quick bouts of cold weather. These short bursts will not be sufficient in pulling the coldest air direct into Florida.
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During the past 100 years, we have averaged one freezing night every three years. We are way overdue! The odds of getting a frost are near 95% for metro Orlando. I expect at least two nights of frost this winter in metro Orlando and, of course, several more once you get out in the suburbs. Here is the 100-year average of when we get our first frosty night.
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Even with no La Nina in place, and a jetstream pattern that will vary greatly, I do expect a normal arrival of frost for Central Florida with the holiday season being the most likely time for metro Orlando. Let's hope so, because I would love to see our mosquito population knocked down to size. - Glenn Richards