Tropical Storm Melissa forecast to be major Cat. 4 hurricane in Caribbean: National Hurricane Center

Tropics Update: October 23rd, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking Melissa set to become a hurricane this weekend, and it's major impacts on the Caribbean. Hurricane season runs through the end of November.

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to become a major Category 4 hurricane as it meanders throughout the Caribbean Sea, bringing heavy rains and potentially deadly flooding to some of the islands in that region.

There is no direct threat to Florida or the United States, though Florida could see increased surf along the coastal beaches. 

Tropical Storm Melissa

Tracking The Tropics:

As of Thursday evening, Tropical Storm Melissa was 165 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 270 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and was moving west-northwest at 2 mph. Melissa's sustained winds were 45 mph. 

"A slow northwest or north motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days," the NHC said.

Melissa is going to be a devastating storm in the Caribbean. 

A loop around/west of Jamaica could yield one of the strongest Caribbean hurricanes on record (high-end Category 5 possible, as seen in track "A" above). 

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The path between Jamaica and Haiti is still a powerful hurricane, but much less so (as seen on track "B" above). This also shifts the corridor for extreme rains. Along and east of the track will be unfathomable rains, with catastrophic floods possible given the slow nature of the storm. 

"Thirty-plus inces of rain appears quite possible along its path. All the tropical spaghetti models keep Melissa away from Florida next week, but it still could be close enough to produce gusty winds on the East Coast, and rough surf," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren.

Vacation or cruise to the Bahamas next week? 

The eastern Bahamas for sure could be facing a major hurricane strike by Tuesday or Wednesday. Any cruise itineraries with plans for the path of Melissa will be altered or held at port. No cruise line will knowingly navigate through a storm as powerful as this one could be.

How long is hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. The "peak" of hurricane season is in the middle of September, though the most active months are typically in August, September, and October. 

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