TIMELINE: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in
Weekend system to bring storms to Florida
Our next best chance for rain will arrive on Saturday and Sunday as the Gulf of Mexico low pressure cranks up and heads closer to Florida. We've issued FOX 35 Storm Alert Days to address the heavy rain threat and gusty winds-we're also monitoring for severe weather during this time. Damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes will be possible.
ORLANDO, Fla - A significant storm is coming together in a very unusual way this weekend. Three pieces of energy in the atmosphere will merge over Florida and create a strong, but non-tropical area of low pressure that yields heavy rains, winds, coastal flooding, and tornadoes.
This will not be a tropical storm because it will be "cold-cored," meaning, unlike a tropical system (think a fireplace as the eye, warm air going to the top of the storm), it has no fireplace in the center. Also, as you can see below, ocean surface temperatures are far too cool to support tropical genesis.
Where the orange shading is, the ocean temperatures are above 80 degrees. That is where the ocean can support tropical development. However, you see surface temperatures are much cooler over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Big Bend area of Florida.
The animation below shows that the storm will be birthed from three independent areas of energy in the upper atmosphere (highlighted below) that all "phase" into one, larger storm from Saturday into Sunday.
Three pieces of energy in the atmosphere will merge over Florida and create a strong, but non-tropical area of low pressure.
This process, including the fact this system will have fronts attached to it, means it will be non-tropical. So no designation as "Tropical Storm Vince" will be made by the National Hurricane Center.
In order of likeliness, the impacts are coastal flooding, rain, gusty winds, then tornadoes.
As a general "broad brush" for the entire area, between 1" and 4" of rain will fall in all locations. A few isolated amounts over 4" are possible.
Winds will ramp up during the day on Saturday (easterly gusts 25-35 mph) during the daylight hours. After sunset, and into Sunday morning, winds will increase, with gusts over 40 mph expected. Along the immediate west and east coasts of Florida, gusts could be near 55-60 mph at their peak.
Winds are quite gusty from the south on Sunday morning, then come out of the west during the afternoon and evening as our storm departs into the Carolinas. Make sure to secure those Christmas decorations!
Rain will come in waves. A few showers are possible through the late afternoon on Saturday, but many spots may be pretty dry through Saturday afternoon. It's not until Saturday evening and night, as low pressure develops to the west that tropical showers, downpours, and storms move in from the south. Expect it to be pretty wet everywhere from Saturday night and Sunday morning to midday.
A high surf advisory has also been issued until 10 a.m. Sunday.
According to the NWS, coastal roads may be closed and low-lying property including homes, businesses, and some "critical infrastructure will be inundated." Significant shoreline erosion will occur along with dangerous swimming and surfing conditions. Swimmers are urged to stay out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions.