How much rain could Orlando get this week ahead of possible tropical disturbance? What we know

Tropical update: July 12, 2025

FOX 35 meteorologist Laurel Blanchard has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs July 1 - November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

ORLANDO, Fla - Moisture east of Florida in the Atlantic is expected to cross over Florida this week and could become a tropical system when it reaches the Gulf, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team and the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC flagged an area of interest over Florida and the Gulf on Saturday, where a broad area of low pressure may form over the next few days, and then has the potential for tropical development. As of Saturday, the chances of development are considered to be low - 20%.

Regardless of development chances, it's expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across Florida, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall and minor flooding this week.

How much rain could fall in Orlando?

What to expect:

According to the FOX 35 Storm Team, tropical moisture is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Central Florida for the next several days – and at least through Wednesday – and the potential for minor flooding in areas that receive heavy rains.

What we don't know:

It's too soon to know how much rain could fall in different parts of the state. Model projects – not forecasts, but computer predictions – show between 1-6" inches of rain total in some sports. Less forecast for Central Florida. 

These projections will likely change as the days go on. 

Timeline: When will the rain arrive?

It's still too early to know the exact timing, but that will firm up in the days ahead. For Central Florida, the next several days will have increasing rain chances, specifically Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.