LAKE MARY, Fla. (FOX 35 ORLANDO) - As rescue efforts continue following the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Bahamas, from a climatological standpoint, Hurricane Dorian was right on time.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to November 30.
The peak of the season is from mid-August to late October, with September 10 as the day you are statistically most likely to find a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin. This is because of warm ocean temperatures and overall lower wind shear.
Wind shear is the change of wind speed and/or direction with height. Strong wind shear prevents hurricane formation, while low wind shear allows storms to strengthen.
The water temperature in the deep tropics rises through the summer months, which fuels the development of storms.
As of 8:00 AM Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located over the far north Atlantic Ocean, and is moving Northeast at 25 mph. The storm poses no threat to the United States, and is expected to weaken as it moves toward Ireland.
Meteorologists are monitoring three other areas for possible development.
A weak area of low pressure, located more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to produce disorganized showers and storms.
The system is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic and has a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. The NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days.
Closer to home, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms north of Hispaniola is expected to move west-northwestward.
It has a low chance of development in the next 5 days, (30% according to the NHC) but will be bringing heavy rain to the Bahamas through Thursday, reaching Florida on Friday. Conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Humberto will be the next named storm, followed by Imelda and Jerry.
Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said conditions are more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity.
Their updated outlook included 10-17 named storms, (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds 74 mph or greater), including 2-4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
So far this season, there have been 7 named storms, of which 2 became hurricanes, with Dorian reaching major Category 5 hurricane intensity.
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
Check out the Orlando Hurricane Guide.
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