Tropical storm tracker: 4 tropical waves being watched in Atlantic, Caribbean

Tropical wave being watched in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on a tropical wave in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

There are four tropical waves being monitored in the Atlantic basin, including one in the Caribbean.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center issues an advisory for one of those waves, which as expected to move off the coast of Africa sometime Thursday or early Friday, according to the 8 a.m. advisory.

The NHC said conditions could allow for this system to develop further as it continues to move west to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days. It's expected to move across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.

It has a low – near 0% chance – of formation over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of formation over the next seven days, according to the advisory.

It is one of four tropical waves being monitored.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from 12N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 22W and 27W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 44W from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 06N.
A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from 05N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are present S of 09N.
A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 81W from 14N southward across Panama into the East Pacific, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 14N between 79W and 83W.

Source: NHC

FOX 35 meteorologist Brooks Garner said it's rare for these to form into full-fledged tropical systems as the wind shear is typically too front for formation this early in the season. Wind shear is the force that can rip apart the system with wind, ironically, before they can form. Also, the Saharan Dust crossing the Atlantic at the start of hurricane season, which can tamper development.

The other reason is that sea surface temperature is usually too cool, however, this year, there's far less Saharan Dust and the sea surface temperatures are at almost record levels.

The NHC is not forecasting further development for the other waves, as of this writing.

Preparing for 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

FOX 35 Tracking The Tropics: 2023 Season Preview

The FOX 35 Storm Team takes a look at how many storms we could see this year, how El Niño could impact this year's season, a new tool that could help protect your home, and a look inside Florida International University's "Wall of Wind."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday it was anticipating a "near-normal" season for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NOAA's outlook predicts 12 to 17 named storms (39 mph winds or greater), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (74 mph winds or greater). Of those, one to four could become a major hurricane (111 mph winds or greater). NOAA said it had a 70% confidence in its prediction.

The numbers are generally in line with Colorado State University's predictions for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which included 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. CSU also predicted a slightly below-average hurricane season.

Despite the season not starting until June 1, the National Hurricane Center said the first tropical storm of the season – a subtropical storm – formed in the Atlantic basin in January 2023. NHC made that announcement in May after reviewing data from January.

While that system will be marked as the first cyclone of the 2023 season, it will not take the first name in this year's storm list. That means that if/when the next system becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Arlene, the first name in this year's lineup.

Hurricane season emergency kit

While experts predict a below average season, it only takes one storm to cause significant damage should one make landfall or near-landfall in Florida. So, it is best to prepare yourself, your family, and your home.

Here are a few ways to prepare for hurricane season:

Make an emergency plan: How will you receive emergency alerts and warnings? Do you have an emergency kit? Do you have all of your important documents? Where will you go if you have to evacuate? Do you have a meeting spot?
Know your evacuation zone: Visit Floridadiaster.org to find your evacuation zone, route, and to see a map.
Have an emergency disaster kit: Have food and water for each person for 7 days, all medicines, flashlights and batteries, cash, and copies of any important documents needed. Do not forget your pet, its food, toys, and any mediciations.
Prepare your home early: Clear out drains and gutters, trim trees, and bring in outdoor furniture.

Visit Ready.gov for more information on preparing for a disaster.