Tropical fact check: Could a tropical system develop in December after hurricane season ends?

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season ends on November 30, 2025. To date, there have been five hurricanes and eight tropical storms – one of which made landfall along the East Coast of the United States.

And there is no tropical activity expected over the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

However, there has been some chatter online and on socia media in recent days about the potential for tropical activity in early December in the Atlantic. Is it true? Is it hype? Here's what we know and do not know. 

What's the deal?

There are dozens of computer models that collect data and spit out potential predictions about potential future forecasts. These are used in the daily weather forecasts, as well as weather outlooks for weeks and months out.

The most reliable weather forecasting typically looks 7-10 days ahead. The National Hurricane Center looks 7 days ahead, while NOAA puts out tropical forecasts 14 days out. And the NHC expects no tropical activity over the next 7 days.

Recently, a couple computer models indicated the possibility of a tropical system next week in the Caribbean. One came from the "GFS" (American) model, which typically is bullish in its predictions – and mentions tropical storms or hurricanes that in reality never happen. Another is from a Google AI Model.

There are a couple others, but there is not enough agreement amongst the other models to take it seriously.

The chances of a tropical system developing are near zero. 

A December tropical storm or hurricane is rare - very rare

There have only been 27 storms on record in the Atlantic Basin during December — and only one hit the state of Florida as a tropical storm back in 1925.

There have only been 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic during December, which equates to a 5.6% chance of there being a hurricane in any given December. Very low chances.

The most recent hurricanes in December were Epsilon in 2005 and Olga in 2001 — both were in the western Atlantic and impacted no land areas directly.

The only hurricane in December to make any landfall anywhere was Hurricane Alice in 1954 that hit Anguilla and St. Maarten around New Year's Eve.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

This will likely be the 1st year since 2015 without a hurricane landfall to the United States, and just the 2nd year ever with 3+ Category 5 hurricanes in the same season.