Orlando 4th of July weather: When will the rain start? Timeline, forecast, live radar

Orlando PM Weather Forecast: July 4, 205

Meteorologist T.J. Springer times out the rain for our Independence Day and talks tropics. Tune in to see how much rain we'll see into our holiday weekend.

ORLANDO, Fla. - The FOX 35 Storm Team has designated the Fourth of July as a Weather Impact Day due to the strong showers and storms expected across Central Florida.

These tropical downpours come from a Tropical Depression 3 (previously Invest 92L) that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring. The system has the potential to strengthen near the southeastern United States later today or on Saturday.

Here's a look at what to expect from the weather today, this weekend and into next week.

What will the weather look like for the Fourth of July?

What To Expect:

It's been another unsettled day across the Sunshine State thanks to this tropical system to our northeast as well as some upstairs "energy" overhead in the atmosphere.

Scattered showers and storms are expected through the remainder of the evening but will start to fizzle out overnight.

Lows tonight will stay seasonable, dipping back into the lower to middle 70s.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX LOCAL APP

As we lose the daytime heating, they'll start to lose their punch little by little. It won't be raining the entire evening though, so if you have fireworks plans, be sure to watch the sky and the radar.

Fourth of July travel at Orlando International Airport (MCO)

More than 1.4 million people are expected to fly into or out of Orlando International Airport (MCO) this week ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.

Here are the top three busiest days expected at MCO:

Sunday, July 6 - 175,559 (arrivals & departures)
Monday, July 7 - 167,536
Saturday, July 5 - 166,508

What will the weather look like this weekend?

What To Expect:

Widescale counter-clockwise motion around Tropical Depression 3 and some lingering spin in the atmosphere make for more showers and storms on Saturday.

Just like Friday, they'll be hit or miss and nature and coverage looks not quite as widespread either. Once again a few stronger storms with frequent lightning and brief gusty wind are expected.

Highs will still be a touch cooler than normal with the clouds and showers around. Afternoon readings look to top out in the upper 80s.

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression 3 forms

What's next:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Depression 3 formed near the southeastern United States on Friday.

The system, (formerly designated Invest 92L), developed about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast. As of Friday afternoon, the NHC is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development over the next seven days and a 70% chance over the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, heavy rain and potential flooding are likely across Florida through the Fourth of July weekend.

What will the weather look like next week?

Looking Ahead:

A more typical summer set-up is on the way for next week.

This will mean more typical sea-breeze-driven afternoon showers and storms.

Our air mass won't be quite as ripe with moisture either, which means we won't see as much rain.

Temperatures will be heating up as a result of more sunshine and dry time, so plan for highs well into the low-90s for most of next week.

Unusually quiet hurricane season

So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), sitting at a meager 0.2 units. ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems.

SIGN-UP FOR FOX 35'S BREAKING NEWS, DAILY NEWS NEWSLETTERS

According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf.

The peak of hurricane season typically comes in mid-September, so while activity is low now, forecasters caution that this is not an indicator of the full season's potential.

FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar and Live Weather Cameras

Track live when storms move across your area using the FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar below. You can also watch as heavy rain moves across Central Florida on our Live Weather Cameras' page here.