Orlando weather: More rain on tap for Central Florida; temperatures reach the 90s

ORLANDO, Fla. - As Saharan dust continues to depart, moisture levels will be steadily rising.

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This will help bring today's afternoon shower and storm chances up to around 40%.

This will be a setup that's more typical for this time of year, with the collision of the east and west coast sea breeze. Coastal counties, including Brevard, Volusia and Flagler will see the highest chances along with eastern Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties.

When will the rain arrive?:

Overall, most areas near and east of I-4 will have the best chances of storms. A few downpours will begin to pop up starting at around 12 p.m., with the best chances happening between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m. A few isolated strong storms will be possible too, with strong winds, frequent lightning and pockets of heavy rain possible.

Rain chances increase into the weekend

Rain and storm chances will be on the rise starting Friday, lasting through the weekend, and possibly early next week.

This will be due to increasing tropical moisture associated with an area of low pressure that will form somewhere over the northeastern Gulf.

This will lead to higher chances of showers and storms Friday and into the weekend. It won't be an all-weekend washout, the main timing will still be during the afternoon hours.

With tropical moisture at play, this means when it rains, it will really pour with a lot of rain falling over a short period of time. Areas of flooding will be possible as some spots could pick up 4 to 5" or more of rain.

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Tracking the Tropics

A weak and broad area of low pressure will form somewhere in the northeastern Gulf along a fading front this weekend.

Chances of development are low overall at only 20% over the next 7 days. How close the low pressure forms to land is still uncertain, along with the amount of time spent over water, both of which will be key factors in development and organization.

The closer to land a low pressure forms, the lower the likelihood of further tropical development. The farther away from land the low pressure forms, the higher the chances of tropical development since water, especially warm water, fuels tropical activity.

And while Gulf waters are warm, the presence of Saharan dust and wind shear are factors that could prevent and limit development as well. While chances of a named storm are very low, they aren't zero.

Even the chance of a tropical depression is pretty slim, but it's still a complicated forecast. If a tropical storm did manage to form, it would be brief and weak. The next name on the list is Bertha.

Florida impacts:

Regardless of how much the system is able to develop, this will be a rainmaker for Florida.

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