Orlando weather: Rain chances increase for Fourth of July weekend

Published July 1, 2026 6:21 AM EDT

Rain chances will gradually increase through the rest of the workweek.

Hotter, more humid conditions return. 

Heat, humidity and storm chances build into the holiday weekend

Timeline for heat and storms:

For the rest of the work week and into the weekend, steamy temperatures and higher chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms will gradually return.

Highs on Thursday will be a degree or two hotter, still overall nearing the low 90s for most. 

Rain chances will be closer to a 40 to 50% chance as well, so remaining scattered overall too.

By Friday, highs will be even hotter in the mid 90s with higher humidity and moisture levels. This will lead to more rounds of downpours and storms, at around 70% on Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are possible, so be sure to adjust outdoor plans accordingly.

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4th of July forecast

Looking ahead into the 4th of July holiday weekend, the forecast features a very Florida-like setup. This means afternoon downpours and storms will be paired with hot and humid temperatures.

A total all-day wash-out isn't anticipated, but do plan for a 60-70% chance of showers and storms that will bring the potential of heavy soaking rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

If you have outdoor plans to celebrate, just keep a close eye on the skies and have a safe place to shelter from the lightning.

Remember, if you can hear the roar of thunder, you're within striking distance of lightning!

Storms are most likely to develop from around noon through 9 or 10 p.m., which could affect outdoor celebrations, including barbecues, pool gatherings and fireworks displays.

This could not only impact your BBQ and pool plans, but also any outdoor fireworks shows. Bottom line, keeping the rain gear handy is a safe bet.

Temperature wise, it's going to be steamy. Afternoon highs will climb into the low and middle 90s as feels-like temperatures reach the low 100s.

The Source: The information used in this story was provided by the FOX 35 Storm Team. 

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