Crowded Republican primary takes shape in Florida’s redrawn 9th Congressional District

ORLANDO, Fla. - Seven Republicans are competing for the nomination in Florida’s 9th Congressional District, where new congressional boundaries have transformed a seat held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Darren Soto since 2017 into a potential pickup opportunity for the GOP.

A recent poll suggests the Republican contest remains wide open, with several candidates clustered near the top and more than 4 in 10 likely primary voters undecided.

Soto is unopposed in the Democratic primary as he seeks another term in Congress.

Who is running?

Dig deeper:

The seven Republican candidates bring backgrounds in the military, business and politics.

Thomas Chalifoux Jr., of Orlando, is a 30-year Army veteran and the GOP's 2024 nominee against Soto. Ben Butler, of Okeechobee, is a cattle farmer. Marcus Carter, of Kissimmee, is an Army veteran and investment adviser. Dan Green, of Vero Beach, served in the first Trump administration. Jorge Martinez, of Orlando, is a Cuban immigrant and accountant. Steve Rance, of Ocoee, is a pastor and military veteran. Justin Story, of St. Cloud, is a former Marine F-18 pilot and commercial airline pilot.

Poll shows tight Republican contest

Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux Jr. and Ben Butler each received 14% support in a Victory Insights poll of likely Republican primary voters, while Dan Green received 12%. The differences among the four candidates were within the poll's margin of error.

Another 41% of respondents said they were undecided, leaving a substantial share of the Republican electorate up for grabs.

Victory Insights, a polling and campaign strategy firm, surveyed 1,200 likely Republican primary voters across six Florida congressional districts from Aug. 4-6 using text-to-web and interactive voice response methods. The firm said the poll was not commissioned by a candidate or political committee.

Victory Insights described the 9th District race as a "complete toss-up," pointing to different potential advantages among the leading candidates. Chalifoux was the Republican nominee for the seat in 2024, while the firm cited Martinez's narrow polling lead, Butler's standing in prediction markets and Green's endorsements.

Among undecided voters, Green had the highest positive name recognition at 17%, according to Victory Insights. Butler followed at 14%, Martinez at 12% and Chalifoux at 10%.

Redistricting reshapes Central Florida

Big picture view:

The Republican primary is taking place against the backdrop of a major redrawing of Florida's congressional districts.

The new congressional map was approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis. The changes significantly altered Soto's district, which previously centered on Osceola County and included portions of Orange and Polk counties.

Under the new boundaries, the 9th District stretches farther south and east through Central Florida and includes Osceola, Highlands, Indian River, Okeechobee and Glades counties, along with portions of Orange and Polk counties.

The changes also consolidated much of the Democratic-leaning Orlando metropolitan core into a neighboring district, while placing other portions of the region in the more geographically sprawling 9th District.

Soto has criticized the map as an effort to strengthen Republican control of Florida's congressional delegation. He said the changes shifted his district from a 4-percentage-point Democratic voter registration advantage under the previous map to a 6-point Republican advantage.

Soto also accused DeSantis and Republican lawmakers of violating Florida's Fair Districts Amendments, constitutional provisions approved by voters in 2010 that prohibit drawing congressional districts with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.

Republicans have defended their approach to congressional redistricting, and the new map has remained in place following legal challenges.

Soto faces a changed electorate

The redistricting could have significant consequences beyond the 9th District.

Under the new boundaries, Trump carried 24 of Florida's congressional districts by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election, according to analyses cited by both parties. Republicans could gain four congressional seats if they win each of those districts.

The changes are particularly significant around Orlando, where Soto's district previously bordered the Democratic-held district represented by U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost. Frost's district was concentrated in Orlando, while Soto represented Kissimmee and a large portion of Osceola County.

The new map concentrates more of the Democratic-leaning Orlando metropolitan core into one district while placing surrounding communities in districts that favor Republicans more heavily.

Soto, who is Puerto Rican and has represented a district with a significant Puerto Rican population, has sharply criticized those changes.

"DeSantis declared war against Florida's 1.3M Puerto Ricans," Soto wrote on social media. in May "We are American citizens, our people served and died for this country, and we vote."

The redrawn district nevertheless remains racially and ethnically diverse. Latino voters make up a significant portion of the electorate, alongside Black and South Asian communities.

With Soto seeking reelection, Republicans see an opportunity to capture a seat Democrats have held for nearly a decade. But with seven candidates competing for the GOP nomination and a large share of Republican primary voters still undecided, the party's nominee remains far from settled.

The primary election is Aug. 18.

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