Forecasters monitor eastern Gulf for possible tropical development
Orlando Weather Forecast: Storms tonight & lots of weekend rains
FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking showers and storms Tuesday evening, with hotter weather the next few days. This coming weekend, a big jump upwards in the daily rain coverage.
ORLANDO, Fla. - The FOX 35 Storm Team is watching the eastern Gulf for the potential development of a tropical system later this weekend or into next week, though it is too early to determine whether a storm will form or what, if any, impacts it could have on Florida.
Forecast models over the past several days have suggested the possibility of development, but most have since become less aggressive.
What we know:
While the chance of an organized tropical system has decreased, forecasters are continuing to monitor the region as new data becomes available.
Any forecast more than a week in advance carries some uncertainty, particularly during hurricane season, when tropical systems can change quickly.
July storms typically develop close to the U.S. coastline rather than in the open Atlantic.
This year, strong upper-level winds, Saharan dust and only marginally favorable conditions have helped keep the Atlantic basin relatively quiet.
Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed along the Texas coast on June 17, remains the only named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
What we don't know:
A weakening cold front is expected to move over the warm waters of the Gulf this weekend, potentially helping to generate a broad area of low pressure.
Whether that system develops will depend on several factors, including where it forms. A disturbance that develops farther from land would have a greater opportunity to strengthen over warm water, while one that forms closer to the coast would have less time to organize.
Wind shear and dry air from Saharan dust could also inhibit development.
What it means for Florida
What's next:
Regardless of whether a tropical system forms, forecasters expect the disturbance to increase rain chances across Florida, particularly along the Gulf Coast, early next week.
If another named storm develops this season, it will be called Bertha.
The Source: Information for this article was taken from the National Hurricane Center, FOX Weather, and the Associated Press.