Low pressure off East Coast brings gusty winds, high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding
Low pressure formed off the East Coast over Mother's Day weekend and will meander in the western Atlantic Ocean for much of this week, creating gusty winds, high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding from the mid-Atlantic southward to Florida.
The jet stream will be parked well to the north over the next several days, so this system won't move much through the middle of the week ahead due to the lack of upper-level steering winds.
A high-pressure system is also located over Canada's Quebec province. The clockwise winds around this high will combine with the counterclockwise winds around the low-pressure system near the Eastern Seaboard, generating persistent northeasterly onshore winds.
These winds will produce high surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast, including all the way down to the Atlantic coast of Florida, early this week.
Moderate to locally major coastal flooding will be a concern at times of high tide, particularly from the Jersey Shore to the Delaware beaches, as these strong northeasterly winds continue to blow the water toward the coastline. Some coastal flooding is also possible in the Virginia and North Carolina Tidewater regions as water levels continue to rise with each successive high tide.
Large, persistent waves will cause severe beach erosion as well.
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for parts of the Jersey Shore and the southern Delmarva Peninsula until Monday evening.
Farther south, a Coastal Flood Advisory is posted for parts of coastal Maryland along the Chesapeake Bay until Tuesday morning.
Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for Washington, D.C., and the Virginia Tidewater until Tuesday morning.
A Coastal Flood Watch is also in effect for Washington from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning.
Later this week, the low-pressure system might backtrack toward the southeastern U.S. and increase the chance of rain along portions of the Southeast coast.
If you have beach plans, you're advised to use caution because of the threat of rip currents. According to the National Weather Service, an average of 60 people are killed by rip currents each year in the U.S. So far this year, rip currents have already been blamed for 14 deaths.
Many beaches use color-coded flags to warn visitors of the day’s rip current risk.
If you see a green flag, strong rip currents are not expected that day, so you should be able to swim safely. However, beware of the yellow and red flags. A yellow flag means there is a moderate risk of strong rip currents, while a red flag indicates a high risk. Take extreme caution when entering the water if a yellow or red flag is posted on the beach.
You can find NOAA’s official rip current forecasts at this link.
Subtropical development not ruled out
It's not entirely out of the question that this low-pressure system meandering off the East Coast could briefly become a subtropical depression or subtropical storm this week. A storm designated as subtropical means it has characteristics of both a tropical and a non-tropical cyclone (a low-pressure system that you would typically find over land in the U.S.).
The National Hurricane Center issues routine advisories for subtropical depressions and subtropical storms, just as it does for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
The odds of this happening are very low, but in the outside chance it develops into a subtropical storm with winds of at least 40 mph, it would earn the name "Alex," the first on the naming list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Although hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1, the past seven seasons have all spawned at least one named storm before that date.
Regardless of what this system is called (or not called), the impacts along the East Coast will be the same as we outlined above.