Tropical Storm Erick: Rare early hurricane expected to form in Pacific as Atlantic, Caribbean remain quiet

Orlando Weather Forecast PM: June 17th, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking the tropics and storm chances for the next few days.

ORLANDO, Fla. - While last year saw an unusually early and intense Atlantic hurricane season, this year is shaping up quite differently — at least for now.

What we know:

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a notably quiet start, with little tropical activity detected so far. This contrasts with the same time last year, when Hurricane Beryl reached Category 5 strength in the Caribbean.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has already seen five named storms: Tropical Storm Alvin, Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, Tropical Storm Dalila, and now Tropical Storm Erick.

Meteorologists in Mexico forecast 18 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this year, with 10 expected to become hurricanes and 4 reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). This would exceed the average seasonal activity, which usually includes about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

In the Atlantic, Colorado State University predicts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with increased chances of landfalls in the Caribbean and eastern Mexico.

The Atlantic and Pacific hurricane basins often operate under opposite patterns. Historically, the Atlantic’s first named storm appears around June 20, with peak activity occurring in August and September.

What we don't know:

Despite the quiet start, meteorologists caution against assuming a calm season ahead. It remains uncertain how long Saharan dust and dry air will suppress storm development in the Atlantic.

Big picture view:

Meteorologists say the difference in basin activity highlights the unpredictability of tropical weather systems. While Central Florida is currently experiencing reduced rainfall due to dry Saharan air, storm activity can shift rapidly, especially later in the summer. Travelers to Mexico are being advised to monitor updates closely as Alberto approaches.

What they're saying:

Around this same week in 2024, Hurricane Beryl became a powerful Category 5 storm in the Caribbean. But in a reversal of fortunes, the Atlantic basin is currently experiencing an unusually quiet start to the 2025 season.

"There’s not much going on out there," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren, pointing to tropical satellite imagery showing little to no convection in the deep tropics. "It’s dead quiet, and it’s going to stay that way for a while."

Tropical Storm Erick — now a strengthening system off the coast of Mexico — became the earliest named storm in the region since 1994. As of Monday night, it was packing 60 mph winds with a pressure below 1,000 millibars and moving northwest at 7 mph.

"This is a very robust system," Bergren said, noting the dense convection on the storm’s southwest side. "It’s forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane by Thursday."

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