NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

NOAA forecasts above-average 2025 hurricane season

Thursday marked the release of the official 2025 hurricane season outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the forecast points to an above-average year for tropical activity. The key drivers behind the forecast include warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which tend to fuel storm development. However, ocean temperatures are slightly cooler than at this time last year.

ORLANDO, Fla. - NOAA released its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which begins June 1. NOAA is predicting an above-average season.

Colorado State University released its initial prediction about two months ago, also calling for an above-average season, though not on the same level as 2024's season.

Still, these are predictions, and it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to significantly impact a community.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 — Nov. 2025.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes is NOAA predicting expected this year?

NOAA is predicting that the 2025 season will be more active than average. However, it is predicted to be less busy than in 2024.

NOAA's hurricane forecast:

• 13-19 named storms
• 6-10 hurricanes
• 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)

How many tropical storms and hurricanes are there in an average hurricane season?

• 14 named storms
• 9 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes

What factors did NOAA use to make their forecast?

How did NOAA come up with this year's prediction? NOAA said it is looking at several factors, including what phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) we're in, the surface water temperatures of the Atlantic Basin, and the forecasted windshear (upper level winds) over the Atlantic between June and November.

ENSO is a "recurring climate pattern involving changes in temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific," which can then impact storm activity in the Atlantic.

The Atlantic is already seeing warmer than average ocean temperatures headed into the 2025 season, which is one of the reasons why NOAA is calling for above-average activity. NOAA is also predicting that there will be less wind shear in the atmosphere, which could allow hurricanes to form more easily.

How does this compare to 2024?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ended up with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. There were three landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

NOAA's initial 2024 prediction was 17-25, 8-13, and 4-7.

In 2024, there was a strong La Nina, meaning the water in the Pacific Ocean was cooler, which created less wind shear in the Atlantic, resulting in a more active season. 

NOAA predicts there will be a near-neutral phase at the start of the 2025 hurricane season, which means average ocean temperatures in the Pacific, and near-normal conditions in the Atlantic. 

What they're saying:

"In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
 

Colorado State University's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season prediction

• 17 named storms
• 9 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes