NHC monitoring tropical disturbance in Gulf; Florida could get heavy rain
The National Hurricane Center is still monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf for potential development.
Tropical disturbance in the Gulf near Florida
Timeline:
In an update Thursday, the NHC said that an area of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern Gulf this weekend.
The system has a low chance of developing in the next week, according to officials. Right now, it's at a 20% chance.
"An area of low pressure is expected to form in the northeastern Gulf this weekend, and now has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone after that time as it moves northeastward along and off the southeastern US coast," NHC said in its update.
Florida impacts: Potential rain this weekend
By the numbers:
The system, whether it develops or not, is expected to bring rain to Florida.
Over the next several days, Central Florida will likely get between 2 and 3 inches of rain.
When could it rain?:
The main timeline of the showers and storms for Saturday will still be during the afternoon and evening, after lunchtime. The highest chances of the heaviest rain and thunderstorm activity will be between the hours of 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. It won't be an all-day washout or constant rain, there will still be breaks at times.
For Sunday, some models are hinting at rain moving in from the west as early as 6-7 a.m. for areas near I-75 from Sumter to Marion and Lake Counties. Heavier rain and storms could push inland to areas near the Orlando Metro by 10 to 11 a.m. Scattered heavy rain and storms look to continue through much of Sunday afternoon until around 8 p.m.
How much rain will we get?:
The average rainfall totals across Central Florida will range from 2 to 3 inches. Isolated pockets of 3 to 4 inches will be possible in areas that see repeated rounds.
Higher rainfall totals will be to the west along the Gulf Coast. With tropical moisture at play, when it rains it will really pour. A lot of rain will fall over short periods of time.
Will there be strong storms?:
The risk is low for the chance of a few strong to severe storms this weekend.
We are not under any specific outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather, though a couple of storms could pack a bit of a punch.
Gusty winds of 50 mph+, heavy rain that could lead to flooding, the low risk of a few rotating storms (mainly west of Central Florida), and plenty of lightning are possible.
Another disturbance in the Atlantic
NHC is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic near Africa.
That system has an even lower chance of developing than the one in the Gulf. Development odds are currently at 10%.
The Source: The information in this story was provided by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team.