New NOAA forecast increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

NOAA forecasters now say that there is an increased chance for an above-normal hurricane season.

On Thursday, NOAA forecasters said that the oceanic and atmospheric patterns are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has ended. 

"El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we could see a busier season ahead," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year."

Seasonal forecasters have reportedly increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45 percent, which is up 30 percent from the May outlook issued. The likelihood of near normal-activity is now at 35 percent and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 percent.

NOAA said that with this, we can expect ten to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. This has also increased since the issued May outlook.



On average, the Atlantic hurricane season typically produces about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major ones, the NOAA reported. There has already been two named storms this Atlantic hurricane season. The peak months of the season are August through October. The season does not end until November 30th.



"Today's updated outlook is a reminder to be prepared," said Pete Gaynor, acting FEMA administrator. "We urge everyone to learn more about hurricane hazards and prepare now, ahead of time, so that if state and local authorities announce evacuations in advance of a storm, you and your family will have planned where to go and what to do to stay safe."

For more information about the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season, visit

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