Tropical Atlantic heats up with 2 areas of concern being watched for potential development
Orlando Weather Forecast: July 28, 2025
FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Jessica Dobson has a look at the heat wave impacting Orlando and Central Florida this week. Here's what you need to know.
MIAMI, Fla. - It’s been a quiet start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but all that could change dramatically as we head into the first part of August.
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring two areas for possible tropical development over the next 10 days or so – one being in the Atlantic and one in the Gulf.
This graphic shows information on possible tropical development at the start of August.(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said a strong cluster of showers and thunderstorms is getting set to move off the coast of Africa and enter into the Atlantic Ocean either late Monday or early Tuesday.
Much of the Atlantic is still blanketed with Saharan dust and dry air, but some computer forecast models are suggesting that this disturbance is carrying enough moisture that it could survive its trek toward the Caribbean.
It won’t be an easy journey, however.
DOWNLOAD THE FREE FOX WEATHER APP
This graphic shows what computer forecast models are thinking about possible tropical development in the Atlantic.(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said dry air and hostile winds high in the atmosphere will likely weaken the system as it moves off to the west, so the most likely outcome is just a wave of moisture reaching the Caribbean later this week.
That being said, the FOX Forecast Center said both traditional computer forecast models and newer, AI-driven models do show the disturbance possibly holding together as a weak tropical disturbance near the northeastern Caribbean by this weekend.
There’s no indication at this point that it will be a strong system, but it’s something worth watching in the coming days.
BRYAN NORCROSS: FIRST SIGNIFICANT AFRICAN DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS ATLANTIC THIS WEEK
But looking ahead, some long-range computer forecast models suggest that the conditions north of the Caribbean and near the Bahamas could become more favorable for tropical development in about seven to 10 days.
That timing lines up with what we can typically expect to see from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a global weather pattern that can help to boost tropical activity when it moves over a region.
The MJO does look to become more favorable for the Atlantic in early August if it can hold together in the Eastern Pacific.
More activity possible along Southeast, Gulf coasts
This graphic shows information on possible tropical development off the Southeast and Gulf coasts of the U.S.(FOX Weather)
It’s not only the Atlantic and Caribbean that bears watching.
The FOX Forecast Center is once again monitoring possible tropical trouble near the Southeast coast as a front stalls later this week.
No disturbances are immediate, but heavy rain and thunderstorms across the region could once again bring a flood threat.
The region has been a hotspot lately, and that’s not expected to change anytime soon.
A powerful cold front will move from the northern tier into the Southeast, stalling out well into the Atlantic.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is highlighting the area as having a low chance of tropical development.
BRYAN NORCROSS TACKLES MORE HURRICANE SEASON QUESTIONS WITH EXPERT INSIGHT
This graphic shows information on August tropical origins.(FOX Weather)
Again, it’s still too early to pinpoint any single disturbance along the cold front, but that setup could bring another round of unsettled weather to the same areas that have already been active over the past few weeks.
If that front stalls in a more favorable atmosphere pocket, there’s an outside chance that a weak tropical system could try and form.
It’s also still unknown if an area of low pressure would form well into the Atlantic or closer to the Southeast coast or the Gulf Coast.
Each area would result in a potentially different scenario.