Tropical development over Bay of Campeche possible this weekend, as heavy rain hits Central America

Tropical Update PM: June 26, 2025

FOX 35 Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren has the latest conditions in the tropics -- including a tropical wave now in the Caribbean. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs July 1 - November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

ORLANDO, Fla. - A broad area of showers and thunderstorms moving across the northwestern Caribbean is expected to shift into the Bay of Campeche by Saturday or Saturday night, forecasters said. The system could develop into a low-pressure area if it remains over open water.

Will a tropical system form over the Gulf this weekend?

What we know:

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms currently moving through the northwestern Caribbean is forecast to enter the Bay of Campeche by Saturday or Saturday night.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports there’s a low chance of development into a tropical system — just 10% over the next 48 hours and 20% over the next week. The system is being watched closely, especially if it lingers over water, where low pressure could form.

For now, forecasters say this system is not a threat to the United States.

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, a broad area of low pressure located offshore of Central America and southern Mexico is showing signs of potential tropical development as well, forecasters said Thursday.

The system, designated as Invest 95E, is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific. According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development in the coming days.

A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining off the coast of southern Mexico. The NHC estimates a 50% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance over the next seven days. If this Pacific system becomes better organized, it could become Tropical Storm Flossie. It will have no direct impact on Florida.

What we don't know:

Forecasters have not confirmed whether the system expected to form over the Bay of Campeche will organize into a named storm. The trajectory, strength, and broader impacts of the potential development remain uncertain. Additionally, it's unclear how long the system will remain over water — a key factor in its potential for intensification.

The backstory:

This system is part of a larger weather pattern fueled by multiple tropical waves and deep tropical moisture. That combination has been enhancing storm activity over the western Caribbean and portions of Central America since earlier this week.

Heavy rain forecast for Mexico, Central America

What they're saying:

These types of tropical patterns are typical during this time of year, as hurricane season ramps up, according to forecasters.

"The FOX Model shows a tropical wave with disorganized showers and storms moving into central Mexico this weekend," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Due to large high pressure over the Gulf, this will get pushed into Mexico and have very limited time over the waters needed for tropical development."

What's next:

Local authorities in Central America — particularly in Honduras and Nicaragua — are closely monitoring the situation due to the persistent and potentially dangerous rainfall. Mountainous regions are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and mudslides. The broader Gulf region is seeing calm seas and light winds due to a high-pressure ridge, which is expected to remain in place into early next week.

Should the system become better organized, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season list is Barry.