National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Jerry forms, expected to become hurricane in next few days

Orlando Weather Forecast PM: October 7th, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking showers and storms returning later this week.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Invest 95L officially became Tropical Storm Jerry on Tuesday, and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say the storm is expected to become a hurricane in the next day or two.

Tracking Tropical Storm Jerry

What we know:

As of Tuesday evening, Tropical Storm Jerry was located about 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands in the Central Tropical Atlantic. 

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX LOCAL APP

Jerry was moving toward the west near 23 mph, and a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the Northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Interests in the area should monitor the progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds for the storm are near 50 mph with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure of the storm was 1003 mb.

Steady strengthening is forecast, and forecasters say Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two.

System in the Southwestern Gulf

What we know:

The NHC is also tracking a trough of low pressure located near the Yucatán Peninsula, which is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northern Guatemala, Southeastern Mexico and the adjacent waters of the Southwestern Gulf. 

Forecasters believe this system will emerge over the Bay of Campeche later on Tuesday, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland by the middle of the week. 

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatán Peninsula, Belize and Southern Mexico during the next few days.

SIGN-UP FOR FOX 35'S BREAKING NEWS, DAILY NEWS NEWSLETTERS

The system currently only has a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and over the next week. 

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Big picture view:

No other activity is being tracked in the Atlantic at this time, but now that we are in October, our focus will start to shift from activity in the Central Atlantic to activity possibly brewing in the Caribbean and the Gulf. 

The Central American Gyre is a low pressure system that forms over Central America and pulls in moisture from the Gulf, the Atlantic and the Pacific. 

This annual pattern can lead to tropical activity in the back half of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.