Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Hurricane forecast, timeline, spaghetti models, Florida impact

Orlando Weather Forecast: August 15, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner has a look at the weekend forecast for Orlando and Central Florida.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin is rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic and is expected to become a hurricane later today, posing a growing threat to the northern Leeward Islands and surrounding regions.

What we know:

As of 5:00 a.m., Erin was about 570 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

 Erin is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 997 mb and tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 90 miles from its center. The storm is expected to steadily strengthen and could become a major hurricane by this weekend – Cat. 4 by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Erin to become major hurricane

Forecasters predict that Erin will continue on a westward track today, shifting slightly to the west-northwest by tonight and into the weekend. This path is expected to bring the storm near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands sometime over the weekend.

A few more models are bringing Erin further west before the forecast curve, possibly kicking the Carolina coast. However, the FOX 35 Storm Team says it's way too early to tell. As the storm gets stronger and possibly makes the predicted curve, we will know more about exactly what will happen. 

The NHC anticipates gradual strengthening over the next 24 hours, with the storm likely to intensify more significantly by Friday, potentially becoming the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. The warmer ocean water is assisting in the storm's rapid strengthening. 

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Tropical Storm Erin Forecast track 

"Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend," the NHC said. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office."

Spaghetti models

Will it impact Florida?

What we know:

The track takes Tropical Storm Erin east of Florida, and while that means we'll be spared from any direct impacts, we will face deadly rip currents all next week as big swells over 10 feet are pushed into Atlantic beaches. The passages of the system will also pull-in drier air midweek, reducing our daily rain chances to 'unlikely' for several days and slightly lower humidity levels.

Looking Ahead:

The FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring another wave that is making its way off the coast of Africa, so this will be our next system to watch carefully after Erin. The next few storm names include Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda.

The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the FOX 35 Storm Team on Aug. 14, 2025.