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What are the chances for tropical development for disturbance near Florida?

By
Updated  June 4, 2025 9:47am EDT
Tracking The Tropics: News, Forecasts, Updates
FOX 35 Orlando

ORLANDO, Fla. - 8 a.m. Update: The disturbance off Florida's coast now has a 0% chance of tropical development, the National Hurricane Center said in its Wednesday morning weather outlook.

Original story below:

NHC: Disturbance has 10% chance for formation

NHC: Disturbance has 10% chance for formation

A disturbance offshore of Florida continues to be monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development. While the chances of formation remain low at 10% over both the next 48 hours and seven days, rain and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are affecting Florida, southeast Georgia, the northwest Bahamas, and nearby Atlantic and Gulf waters.

The Brief

    • A disturbance off Florida’s coast is being watched for possible development, but chances remain low at 10%.
    • Rain and storms are affecting Florida, southeast Georgia, the Bahamas, and nearby waters.
    • Forecasters say several major factors are hindering tropical development, including the system's unfavorable track.

A disturbance offshore of Florida continues to be monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development.

What we know:

While the chances of formation remain low at 10% over both the next 48 hours and seven days, rain and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are affecting Florida, southeast Georgia, the northwest Bahamas, and nearby Atlantic and Gulf waters.

Could it develop into a tropical depression or storm?

What we don't know:

At this time, that remains unclear. FOX Weather reported that forecasters are watching the track of the area of low pressure. The closer it stays to land, the lower the chance of tropical development, they said.

"If the low spends time offshore, it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph," the NHC stated in its Wednesday morning outlook.

Both the NHC and the FOX Forecast Center highlighted several major factors that are hindering tropical development, including the system's unfavorable track, a large pocket of dry air on the backside of the system and strong wind shear over the potential development area.

The best chance for development appears to be during a small window on Thursday morning when the system moves off the Carolina coast, according to FOX Weather.

Will the disturbance impact Florida?

Local perspective:

The system will cause showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Florida over the next few days.

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The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center and FOX Weather reporting on June 4, 2025. 

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