Orlando weather: Weekend storms linger as Gulf disturbance stays on the radar

ORLANDO, Fla. - All eyes are on the tropics and how this area of low pressure could impact the Sunshine State. That tropical moisture as well as our typical Florida heat are the big weather headlines as we progress through the weekend.

Tracking the tropics:

Chances for tropical development stay low, but they have come up a little compared to Friday. Over the next 48 hours, there's now a 20% chance of development. 

That is the big change with this developing disturbance. 

There is a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. The Gulf water is warm, but there will be wind shear that this system is combatting.

Tropical downpours expected:

As this area of low pressure continues to develop in the Gulf, we'll be on the outer periphery of the heavier tropical moisture. That doesn't mean we can't get some tropical rain though, as more moisture streams into the state. 

This system, with the help of the upper-level flow, will start to shift to the WNW, taking the heavier rain along with it. This trend has continued today, with conditions looking a bit drier for us. 

Hit-or-miss tropical downpours and storms are still on the table, mainly this afternoon into the evening. A couple of storms could turn stronger to even severe later this afternoon into the evening, which is something we'll be watching. 

The main hazards would be smaller hail and gusty wind. A brief tornado can't be completely ruled out though, especially with a boundary collision, and a bit more wind energy. We do it all over again on Sunday with a few showers and storms around during the afternoon into the evening. A couple of strong severe storms are possible on Sunday as well.

HOW MUCH RAIN?
Rainfall totals will be the heaviest across the Gulf Coast with the lightest amounts on our East Coast Beaches. Amounts on the Gulf side could top out beyond 3", depending on who gets in on the downpours. 

Farther to the east, across the Orlando Metro, we'll likely see around 0.5-1" with isolated higher amounts possible. The closer you get to the Space Coast, amounts will trend down toward 0.25–0.50" or so.

BECOMING DRIER, A LITTLE HOTTER NEXT WEEK

Drier air will continue to wrap around this developing area of low pressure in the Gulf through the first half of next week. This will start to cut down on chances of rain. In fact, we'll likely see drier than normal conditions middle to late week. 

Chances dip to around 30% Wednesday into Thursday, with temperatures coming back up. Highs by midweek look to top out around 95°, which is above average for this time of year.