Tropics forecast: 6/5, Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific

Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific... The Atlantic remains quiet for now, while the Pacific side of the tropics is much more active. Yes, some computer models have been hinting at possible tropical development in the Gulf or western Caribbean down the road. But this time of year, long range model runs are notorious for chasing ghosts. One reason is the Central American Gyre, a broad, slow moving area of low pressure and spin that often develops near Central America during the spring and fall. It is a normal seasonal feature, and sometimes it can help spawn tropical systems. The key word is sometimes. Tropical meteorologists have repeatedly shown that forecast skill drops off sharply when trying to predict the birth of a tropical system more than about 7 days out. So when you see wild model maps showing hurricanes 10 to 14 days from now, take them with a huge grain of salt, especially if no organized tropical system exists yet. Bottom line: we watch the pattern, not individual fantasy model runs. Right now, there is no reason to hype anything in the Atlantic.