WASHINGTON - American University professor Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984. With his system based on 13 historical factors that he calls “Keys to the White House,” Lichtman was one of the few people who went on record to correctly predict that Donald Trump would win the presidency over Hillary Clinton.
Why was his system so successful for this election while the majority of the polls predicted otherwise?
“Because I looked at history,” he said. “My system, which has been successful since 1984, is based on the study of every American presidential election since 1860 and taps into the forces that really drive elections and that is the strength and performance of the party holding the White House – not the campaign.”
Lichtman told FOX 5 that his system ignores the polls and pays no attention to pundits and day-to-day events of the campaign.
“I can't tell you how many people were telling me, ‘You're wrong. The polls are right,’” Lichtman said. “But the problem is my system is designed for prediction. Polls are not predictors. They are snapshots. They are abused and misused as predictors and they don't really know who is actually going vote. Those likely voter screens are very inaccurate.”
After Trump’s victory, Lichtman said this election should make people “rethink the way we examine elections and not be so poll driven and look at the bigger picture.”
Lichtman also told us about another prediction he has about President-elect Trump.
“Not a scientific prediction – this one just comes from my gut – and that is we could see a Donald Trump impeachment,” he said. “This is a guy who has played fast and loose with the law all his life. People don't change and he may be setting up a huge train wreck by turning his businesses over to his children and that could conflict with national security.”