Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Hurricane forecast, timeline, spaghetti models, Florida impact

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Published  August 13, 2025 5:40pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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Tropical update: August 13, 2025

FOX 35 Meteorologist Laurel Blanchard has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs thru November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

The Brief

    • Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2025 season by Friday and could reach major strength this weekend.
    • The storm's exact track remains uncertain, but most models show a curve away from the U.S. coast.
    • Florida can expect dangerous rip currents and high surf.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin is gaining strength in the Atlantic and is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 season by Friday, forecasters said. Here is the latest hurricane forecast, timeline, spaghetti models and potential Florida impact.

Hurricane forecast

What to Expect:

Tropical Storm Erin, located about 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, is producing maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and is moving west at 17 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory. 

Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Erin is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane by Friday and reach major hurricane strength later this weekend. 

On its current forecast track, the storm’s center is expected to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

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Timeline

What to Expect:

Forecasters say Erin will maintain a general westward motion through Thursday before turning west-northwest Thursday night and into the weekend. 

Most forecast models suggest the storm will curve between two high-pressure systems along the East Coast, but it is still too early to determine exactly how close Erin will get to the U.S. coast.

Meteorologists caution that the forecast is 7 or more days out, leaving significant uncertainty in the track and potential impacts.

Spaghetti Models

Will it impact Florida?

What to Expect:

Even if Erin remains offshore, forecasters warn that dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected along Florida’s coast as the storm approaches the western Atlantic. 

The potential for rainfall or other direct impacts to the state remains uncertain and will become clearer heading into the weekend. 

Authorities urge residents to monitor updates and be prepared for changing conditions.

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