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Tropical activity expected to increase in September
After a quiet end to August and the start of September, forecasters say conditions in the Atlantic are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
ORLANDO, Fla. - As we shift into fall, forecasters say conditions in the Atlantic are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
What we know:
After an unusually quiet stretch at the end of August and early September, forecasters say the Atlantic basin is primed for increased tropical development.
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The National Hurricane Center is tracking several areas of interest, while the Climate Prediction Center has flagged the Gulf and deep tropics as likely regions for storms in the coming weeks.
What we don't know:
It remains unclear how many systems will form, how strong they could become or whether they will directly impact land. Forecasts beyond seven days are based on broader atmospheric trends rather than specific storm tracks.
The backstory:
Historically, the heart of hurricane season spans mid-September through mid-October.
Many of the most damaging storms in past years, including 2024, formed in the latter half of the season.
This year’s unusually quiet start has been seen as a temporary lull rather than a sign of a mild season.
Big picture view:
The anticipated uptick is tied to a positive phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global weather pattern that promotes storm development. Combined with record warm ocean waters across the Atlantic, conditions are aligning for potentially stronger and more frequent systems.
What they're saying:
Meteorologists caution residents against letting down their guard.
"For the first time this season, we’re seeing real potential for development in the Gulf, the Bahamas, or the Caribbean," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "We will see how things go as we get closer, but it does look like this will largely be driven by a positive phase of the MJO moving over the Atlantic basin, causing a much more active end of September. That combined with extremely warm waters throughout the basin could lead to several big systems still to come."
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The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team.