Tropical development odds grow for first area to watch of 2025 off Mexico's coast

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Orlando Weather Forecast AM: May 21, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner gives us an idea of what to expect for the weather to kick off our Wednesday morning in Central Florida. Garner also discusses what comes next weather wise for the week and gives us a preview of this weekend's weather.

The official start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific began less than a week ago on May 15, and right on cue, forecasters are keeping their eyes on an area of low pressure that could form off the southern Mexico coast.

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This graphic shows an area of low pressure that could form off the Mexico coast.(FOX Weather)

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico by the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

"So, nothing is there yet," FOX Weather Meteorologist Marissa Torres said. "But when you look at some of the model data, maybe we see something try to pop."

This image provides an overview of the Pacific basin.(FOX Weather)

The NHC said conditions appear favorable for some development of the system while it moves west to west-northwestward at around 10-15 mph.

"We do typically look toward the Eastern Pacific this time of year," Torres continued. "You can so often get these areas of disturbed weather marching from east to west. And these, if given the ability, can enter into maybe a low-shear environment. We know the water is certainly warmer off the coast of Mexico."

Right now, the NHC is giving the system a low chance of developing over the next seven days.

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