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ORLANDO, Fla. - Colorado State University researchers have reduced their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing expectations that El Niño conditions will suppress storm development.
The updated forecast now calls for fewer named storms and hurricanes than originally projected in April.
What we know:
Researchers at Colorado State University now forecast 11 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, down from the 13 storms projected in April.
Of those storms, five are expected to become hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, compared with six in the earlier forecast. The forecast continues to call for two major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 storms or stronger with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. A typical season produces 14 to 15 named storms, with about seven reaching hurricane strength.
Why was the forecast changed?
Forecasters pointed to strengthening El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which tend to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic.
Vertical wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can disrupt developing tropical systems, making it harder for storms to organize and intensify.
Researchers also noted that sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic are not as favorable for storm development as previously anticipated.
What they're saying:
Colorado State researchers said El Niño is expected to be the primary factor influencing the season.
"Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," the researchers wrote in their forecast update.
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"We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear."
The backstory:
Colorado State University's hurricane outlook is one of several closely watched seasonal forecasts released each year by meteorologists and climate researchers.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 14 named storms, with three to six hurricanes expected during the season. AccuWeather has projected between 11 and 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes.
While seasonal forecasts can provide insight into broad trends, experts caution they cannot predict where storms will form or whether any will make landfall.
Local perspective:
For Florida residents, the forecast may offer some reassurance after several years of significant hurricane impacts.
Between 2022 and 2024, Florida experienced direct landfalls from six hurricanes, including four major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or stronger.
Last year, the Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, four of which reached major hurricane status. However, none made a direct landfall in Florida or elsewhere in the United States.
Even during quieter seasons, emergency managers stress that it only takes one storm making landfall to create significant damage and disruption.
What we don't know:
While forecasters expect a below-average season overall, it remains impossible to determine where storms will form, how strong they may become, or whether any will threaten Florida or the United States.
The influence of El Niño can also fluctuate during the season, potentially affecting storm activity differently than currently projected.
The Source: This story was written based on reporting by the News Service of Florida and Colorado State University.