National Hurricane Center: Tropical wave in Atlantic eyed for potential development

ORLANDO, Fla. - Forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa in the next couple of days, though chances for development remain low. This comes as Wednesday marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

What we know:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa within the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

The system is forecast to travel west-northwest at about 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Forecasters say there is little immediate threat, with formation chances near zero in the next 48 hours and about 20% over the next week.

What we don't know:

It remains unclear whether the wave will organize into a tropical depression or storm. While environmental conditions could support slow development, the presence of dry air and wind shear may prevent it from strengthening.

The backstory:

This portion of the Atlantic, often referred to as the "main development region," frequently produces waves that can become tropical storms or hurricanes. However, not all survive the long trek across the ocean due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

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Big picture view:

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, areas that typically become more active in late September and October. Decaying cold fronts interacting with warm waters can create the right conditions for low-pressure systems to form, sometimes close to home. Past hurricanes such as Helene and Milton illustrate how powerful storms can develop late in the season.

Timeline:

The immediate focus is the tropical wave moving off Africa this week. Potential development could occur over the weekend into early next week. 

Wednesday marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at weather maps.

Beyond that, forecasters expect the western Caribbean and Gulf to become the next hot spots for tropical activity later in September and into October.

What they're saying:

Forecasters are giving this tropical wave near Africa a near-zero chance of forming in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance within a week.

"Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system," the NHC said in its outlook. Still, the wave faces obstacles, including dry air and wind shear, which typically limit storms in that part of the basin.

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