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Hurricane Erin: Forecast, track, spaghetti models
FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist TJ Springer joins Garrett Wymer to break down the latest with Hurricane Erin, including the potential impacts of the storm as it continues to head northwest towards the US and Florida. The storm is not expected to make landfall in Florida, but it does bring high surf and waves to Florida's beaches.
ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Erin that could strengthen into a depression later this week, and it's a system that could impact Florida. However, recent models show an area of high pressure could steer it toward Bermuda.
What we know:
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two tropical waves trailing Hurricane Erin in the eastern Atlantic.
One tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this weekend," the NHC said.
Meteorologists say the disturbance has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within two days and a 60% chance over the next week. The wave is expected to approach the Leeward Islands by Friday.
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A second tropical wave located about a hundred miles to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
"Conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development chances after that time," the NHC said.
Meteorologists say the disturbance has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within two days and a 30% chance over the next week.
What we don't know:
Forecasters say the two systems' longer-term paths are uncertain. Their tracks could be steered by an upper-level ridge, leaving open several scenarios that could bring them closer to the Caribbean and possibly the Southeast U.S., including Florida, next week. The latest models show the first tropical wave following a similar path as Hurricane Erin.
Wind sheer and the Saharan Dust layer could also play a factor in how quickly these systems intensify.
The backstory:
With unusually warm Atlantic waters, meteorologists warn that any disturbance has ample fuel to intensify.
The next named storm on the 2025 list will be Fernand.
What they're saying:
"A tropical depression or storm may form later this week into the weekend in the vicinity of Puerto Rico," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Longer term, there are a lot of scenarios for this system, and we will be watching for next week in the Southeast U.S. and in Florida."
Big picture view:
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives in early September. With warm waters and an active wave train off Africa, forecasters are urging residents across the Caribbean and along the U.S. coastline to review preparedness plans now.
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The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team on August 19, 2025.