Orlando weather: Rainy week ahead for Central Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. - A very moist, summer-like pattern remains locked over Central Florida.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop Monday afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances generally from around 2 p.m. through midnight.

Some storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds of 35–45 mph and very heavy rain.

How much rain will we get?:

Rainfall rates of 2–4" in an hour will be possible beneath the heaviest storms, so localized street and poor-drainage flooding will be a concern where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.

How hot will it get?:

Highs reach the upper 80s to around 90 with heat index values in the mid 90s to near 103°.

Heavier rain expected Tuesday, Wednesday

The pattern becomes even more favorable for widespread rain Tuesday and Wednesday as a front stalls across Florida and an area of low pressure develops near the east coast.

Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected both days, especially during the afternoon and evening.

Slow-moving storms may produce repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed east Central Florida under a

Flooding of roads and low-lying areas will be the main concern, along with frequent lightning and isolated stronger storms capable of 40–50 mph wind gusts.

Rain continues into the weekend

This will not be a quick one or two-day event.

Above-normal rain chances remain in the forecast Thursday through the weekend as the stalled boundary hangs around Florida.

Scattered to widespread showers and storms remain possible each day, with only a gradual reduction in rain chances by Sunday.

Tracking the tropics

The disturbance in the southwestern Gulf has become a little more noteworthy overnight.

A surface trough has developed near the coast of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 50% chance over the next seven days.

A tropical depression could form during the second half of this week as the system initially drifts eastward before eventually turning northward.

Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, so development should be gradual.

It remains too early to determine what, if any, direct impacts this system could eventually have on Florida.

For now, the more immediate concern locally is the prolonged stretch of heavy rain associated with the stalled front and nearby low pressure.