This browser does not support the Video element.
New poll shows close races for Florida governor, U.S. Senate
Two major Florida races are competitive, according to a new University of North Florida poll, with Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points in the governor's race and Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by 4 points in the U.S. Senate contest.
ORLANDO, Fla. - A new University of North Florida poll shows competitive races for Florida governor and the U.S. Senate, with Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody holding narrow leads over their Democratic opponents.
The poll, conducted Oct. 12 through 19 by UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab, surveyed 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters. Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly, 49% to 47%, while Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon, 49% to 45%.
The margins have narrowed since the lab's July poll, when Donalds led by 5 percentage points and Moody by 8. The poll's overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, meaning the governor's race is within that margin.
National politics could influence races
Dr. Sean Freeder, the lab's faculty director and a political science professor, said national political dynamics could affect both contests, as midterm elections often reflect voters' views of the president and his administration.
Freeder attributed the growing competitiveness partly to national political factors and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, according to the poll's news release.
Among independent voters, Jolly leads Donalds by 16 percentage points in the governor's race. In the Senate contest, independents favor Nixon by 15 points.
The poll also found differences in how voters view the gubernatorial candidates on key state issues. Jolly leads Donalds on trust regarding data centers, 41% to 37%. Voters were nearly evenly divided on affordability and the cost of living, with 43% favoring Jolly and 42% Donalds. Donalds leads on property insurance, 43% to 38%.
Campaign messaging shapes voter perceptions
The survey examined how campaign messages about Nixon and Moody affected voters.
Overall, 25% of respondents said Republican messaging about Nixon's ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her, while 12% said it made them more likely to support her. More than half, 55%, said the messaging had no effect on their vote.
Democratic messaging about a grand jury report concerning the Hope Florida program had a negative effect on Moody's support among 30% of respondents. The messaging had a particularly notable impact among independent voters, 38% of whom said it made them less likely to vote for Moody.
Moody's campaign has highlighted Nixon's association with democratic socialism, while Nixon's campaign has focused on the Hope Florida controversy, Freeder said.
Despite the competing messages, most respondents said the campaign arguments did not change their vote choice.
Amendment 3 falls short of approval threshold
The poll also examined Amendment 3, which would increase Florida's homestead property tax exemption over time, excluding taxes levied for schools, while lowering the cap on increases in assessments for non-homestead properties.
Half of respondents said they would vote yes, while 30% said they would vote no and 14% were undecided. The measure needs 60% approval to pass.
Freeder said the amendment's outcome could depend on how undecided voters ultimately vote, noting that most would need to support it for the proposal to reach the required threshold.
The survey used a shortened explanation of the amendment's ballot language, a limitation that may affect how closely responses reflect voters' understanding of the full proposal.
Voters weigh environment and development
The poll also asked respondents whether state and local officials should prioritize environmental protection, even if it limits economic growth, or economic development, even if the environment suffers to some extent.
Sixty-one percent favored prioritizing environmental protection, while 26% favored economic growth and development.
Support for environmental protection was highest among Democrats, at 78%, and independents, at 62%. Nearly half of Republicans, 48%, also favored environmental protection.
The poll found that newer Florida residents were more likely to prioritize economic growth and development, while those who had lived in the state longer tended to favor environmental protection.
Poll methodology and election outlook
The Public Opinion Research Lab conducted the survey by telephone from Oct. 12 through 19, using a random sample drawn from Florida's voter file. Respondents were screened for likely participation in the 2026 midterm election, and results were weighted to reflect the state's electorate.
The poll's response rate was 5.4%. Researchers cautioned that the margin of sampling error does not account for all potential sources of survey error.
Freeder said turnout will be a key factor in both races, but polling cannot determine with certainty how many voters from each party will cast ballots.
Election Day is Nov. 3, and early voting is underway.
The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the University of North Florida. The poll, conducted Oct. 12–19 by UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab, surveyed 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters. The poll's overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points.