Hurricane Isaias strengthened overnight and is nearing major hurricane status as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast.
In the latest update, Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and was moving north-northeast at 15 mph.
Isaias expected to become Category 3 hurricane
The National Hurricane Center now forecasts Isaias to reach 120 mph later this morning, making it a Category 3 major hurricane.
Very warm, deep Gulf waters remain favorable for intensification over the next 12 hours.
However, a substantial increase in upper-level wind shear is expected before landfall, likely weakening the hurricane somewhat.
NHC currently forecasts a high-end Category 2 hurricane at landfall, but warns that a delay of just six hours in the arrival of stronger wind shear could allow a substantially stronger hurricane to reach the coast.
Gulf Coast threats
Regardless of its exact intensity at landfall, Isaias will remain extremely dangerous. Its wind field is expected to expand as the hurricane interacts with an approaching upper-level trough, spreading damaging winds and storm surge well away from the center.
Storm surge could extend as far east as Tampa Bay with 1-2 feet higher than normal waters and on the Big Bend from Cedar key to Horseshoe beach, 2-4 feet of storm surge. There could be more than 7 feet of storm surge from Panama City Beach to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
When will it make landfall?:
The latest NHC forecast brings the center ashore along the northern Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday, near the Pensacola-Mobile area.
The greatest hurricane wind threat remains across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Life-threatening storm surge is expected along a large portion of the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, from the mouth of the Mississippi River eastward toward Florida's Big Bend.
Significant storm surge, hurricane-force winds, widespread power outages and flooding rainfall are expected near and east of landfall.
The eastern side of Isaias will also need to be watched for tropical tornadoes tonight into Saturday.
Watches and warnings:
Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches or Warnings are possible later today.
Heavy rainfall will also spread across much of the Southeast through the weekend, bringing the potential for significant flash flooding, urban flooding and river flooding.
By Sunday, the weakening post-tropical circulation is expected to move northeastward, with dissipation forecast by early Monday.
Central Florida Impacts
The greatest direct impacts from Hurricane Isaias remain well northwest of Central Florida.
Our main concerns continue to be scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms, with occasional strong wind gusts and localized flooding through Sunday.
The good news: Isaias will help set the stage for a pattern change early next week, with a weak front arriving Monday and substantially drier air finally returning to Central Florida. It'll feel like fall again.
The Source: This story was written based on information released by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team.